コロナショックによる経済の落ち込みへの対策として、世界各国の政府や中央銀行はかつてないほどの額の金融政策や財政政策を実施しています。
その結果、今後大量のお金が市場に出回ることになります。
それによって通貨が過剰供給となり、今後インフレが起こってしまうのではないか？という噂もあります。
そこで今回はインフレになった時に有効な投資先を調べていきます。
インフレとは？
まずはインフレとは何かについてお話しします。
インフレとはインフレーションの略で、簡単に言うと「モノやサービスの値段が上がり、相対的にお金の価値が下がる」ことです。
例えば、インフレが進行すると1玉100円で買えていたキャベツが1玉200円になってしまいます。
キャベツの値段が倍になったということは、言い換えればお金の価値が半分になったということです。
この場合のインフレ率は2倍です。
過去にはハイパーインフレと呼ばれる非常に急激なインフレが起こっています。
2008年のジンバブエでは、1年間で2.2万倍のハイパーインフレが発生しています。
100兆ジンバブエドル紙幣という子供銀行券のような額の紙幣が発行されたというニュースを覚えている方もいると思います。
インフレのピーク時には100兆ジンバブエドルが日本円にして0.3円ほどの価値だったということだったので、どれほど凄まじいインフレだったかがわかります。
インフレの原因は？
インフレには良いインフレと悪いインフレがあります。
良いインフレというのは、アベノミクスの際によく言われた「インフレ目標2％」のような緩やかなインフレです。
物価の上昇とともに所得も上昇し経済が成長して行くので、国民生活は豊かになっていきます。
それに対して悪いインフレはジンバブエのような急激なインフレです。
急激なインフレが起こる原因としては
- 戦争の賠償や軍事費によって資金が必要になり大量の新規貨幣発行
- 商品やサービスの供給不足による急激な物価の上昇
- 政府の財政難や金融危機に対処するために大量の新規貨幣発行
などがあります。
今回のコロナショックによって引き起こされる可能性があるインフレは3番の金融危機に対処するための大量の新規貨幣発行になります。
インフレから資産を守る
インフレとは「モノやサービスの値段が上がることで相対的にお金の価値が下がること」と書きました。
つまり、インフレの状況下で現金を持っていたらその価値はどんどん目減りして行くということです。
インフレ率が1年で2倍だとすると銀行預金が100万円あったとしても1年後には50万円の価値しか無くなってしまいます。
そこで、インフレ時には投資が大切になります。
インフレに有効な投資
インフレに有効とされている投資先には「実物資産」と「海外通貨」があります。
「実物資産」とは不動産や金など通貨の価値に左右されない資産です。
「海外通貨」は為替や外貨預金です。私たち日本で暮らす日本人から見ればドルやユーロなどで、インフレによって円の価値が下がっても海外通貨は影響を受けません。
不動産投資信託（REIT）
不動産投資といっても、インフレになりそうだからといっていきなり土地やマンションを買えるほどの資産を持ってる人は少ないと思います。
そんな人でもREITであれば不動産投資をすることができます。
REITは投資信託の一種で、投資家から集めた資金でプロのファンドマネージャーがオフィスビルや商業施設などの不動産に投資を行い、そこから得られる不動産の売却益や賃貸収入を投資家に還元します。
個人では直接買えないような不動産を間接的に購入することができるという点では立派な不動産投資と言えると思います。
金（ゴールド）
言わずと知れた安全資産のゴールドです。
株式や債権は会社が倒産したり国が破綻したりすればただの紙くずで価値はゼロになってしまいますが、ゴールドはゴールド自体に価値があるので、インフレ時には人気が高まり価値が上がっていきます。
株式投資
インフレ時には物価が上昇するので企業の業績は好調になり、株価も上昇しやすい傾向にあります。
しかし、金融危機などによる悪いインフレ時には経済は混乱してしまうのでインフレ初期に株価は暴落する可能性もあります。
しかしその後株価は上昇するので、株価の暴落時を狙って株を購入することができれば大きな利益を出すことも可能です。
投資信託
投資信託も株式投資と同じで、現金で資産を保有しているよりもインフレの影響を受けづらい投資先です。
また、個別株への投資よりも分散投資ができるのでリスクの低減もできます。
外国為替
インフレによって日本円の価値が下がれば円安となります。
fxでドル円やユーロ円などの取引で海外の通貨と交換しておくことで円安になって差益を得ることができます。
しかし為替は相手国の経済状況やfxであればスワップ金利など様々な要因が絡んでくるので注意が必要です。
まとめ
今回はインフレ時の有効な投資先について調べてきました。
今後本当にインフレになるのかどうかはまだ誰にもわかりません。
しかし実際にインフレが発生してから急いで投資をしようと思っても間に合わない可能性もあります。
現在投資をしている方もしていない方も、万が一ハイパーインフレが発生してしまったら自分の資産をどう守るのか？というのを今のうちに一度考えておいたほうがいいのかもしれません。
この記事が少しでも参考になれば幸いです。
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コメント一覧 （344件）
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