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『人との接触8割減』と『ソーシャル・ディスタンス』の効果

2020 4/11

先日の緊急事態宣言発令の会見の中で安倍首相は

「最低7割、極力8割、人との接触を減らしていただければ、必ず我々はこの事態を乗り越えることができる、と思っています」と話しました。

さらに、世界では人との距離を6フィート(約1.8メートル)開けようという「ソーシャル・ディスタンス(社会的距離)」の呼びかけが広がっています。

この2つを徹底することでコロナウイルスの感染拡大を抑えることはできるのでしょうか?

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目次

人との接触「8割減」でどう変わる?

まず安倍首相が会見で国民にお願いしていた人との接触の8割減。

北海道大学の西浦教授の試算によると接触8割減を徹底すれば、開始後10日から14日をピークにその後の新規感染者数は急速に現象に転じるということです。

西浦教授の試算を基に作成したグラフ
人との接触8割減少を徹底させた場合
西浦教授の試算を基に作成したグラフ
人との接触を減らさなかった場合

グラフを見ればわかるように、2週間目までは接触8割減を始める前に感染してた人たちが潜伏期間を経て発症するので新規感染者数が増え続けますが、その後は急速に減少していきます

しかし、人との接触を減らさずに生活を続ければ14日目の6000人を超えてさらに増え続けるという試算になっています。

NTTドコモが、携帯電話の接続データを利用した人口分析サービスを使って、都内の人口の変化を示すデータを公開しました。

それによると、4月5日(日)の渋谷センター街周辺が49%減で特に15歳〜29歳に限れば53%減と半分以下に、銀座周辺では66%減と週末の外出自粛要請には一定の効果があったようです。

一方、4月3日(金)の新橋周辺では40%減とやはり平日のオフィス街では人口減少は小幅でした。

もちろん、この数字は外出している人の数を表しているだけなので、その人たちが外出先で人との接触を意識して避けている可能性もあります。

しかし5割の人が外出先で気をつけてなるべく接触を避けているとしても、残りの5割の人が徹底的に誰にも会わないようにしてようやく8割減に届くかどうかという計算になります

そう考えればやはり現状では8割減には程遠い数字になっているだろうと言わざるを得ません。

ソーシャル・ディスタンスの効果

そしてもう一つ「ソーシャル・ディスタンス」です。

これは人との距離をなるべく開けて接触や飛沫による感染を防ごうというものです。

望ましい距離は1.8m〜2m以上と言われています。

小池都知事によると、今回の新型コロナウイルスは何も対策をしなければ

1人の感染者→5日後に2.5人に感染→30日後には406人にまで感染が広がると言われています。

それが、ソーシャルディスタンスを意識して行動した場合

50%の人が意識すれば

1人の感染者→5日後に1.25人に感染→30日後に15人に感染

75%の人が意識すれば

1人の感染者→5日後に0.625人に感染→30日後に2.5人の感染で済むという試算が出ています。

接触8割減とソーシャル・ディスタンスの徹底

現状、都心の繁華街やオフィス街の外出人口が5割減にとどまっているように、人との接触を8割減らすというのは並大抵のことではありません。

すでに2週間以上外出自粛要請が続いていて「自粛疲れ」のようなものも皆さんあると思います。

しかし、全員が2週間だけ徹底的に我慢して人との接触を避ければその先には収束への道が見えてきます。

ソーシャル・ディスタンスに関しては人との接触を減らすよりも簡単に少し意識するだけでできるものです。

もちろん、仕事柄どうしてもできない人もいると思いますが、それでも仕事以外の生活の中で意識するだけでも変わってくると思います。

現状の政府の自粛要請や休業要請、対象となる施設の選別など決してベストだとは思いません。

まだ目先の経済のことを気にして徹底した対策を取れていないようにも感じます。

本当はこの2週間から1ヶ月間、国民の行動制限を徹底して封じ込めることが長い目で見れば経済的な損失や最終的な感染者数も少なく済ませる事につながると思っています。

しかしいまそれに対して文句を言っている時間はありません。

とにかく私たち一人一人が「家でじっとして何もしない」を頑張ってやるしかありません。

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参考サイト

日経クロストレンド
渋谷センター街、週末の若者5割減 NTTドコモのモバイル空間統計
渋谷センター街、週末の若者5割減 NTTドコモのモバイル空間統計NTTドコモは2020年4月8日、新型コロナウイルスの影響で、東京都内の人口がどう変化したかを示すデータを公開した。携帯電話の接続データを利用した人口分析サービス「モバ...
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