新型コロナウイルスの感染拡大によって、にわかに現実味を帯びてきた首都封鎖。
まるで映画や小説の中の話のようですが、現実に世界各地で実施されています。
東京都の感染者の急増
東京都の感染者数は3/17からの1週間ほど1日10人前後のペースで増えていましたが、3/25に41人、3/26に47人、3/27にも40人とここに来て大幅に感染者数が増加しています。
オリンピック延期が決まって、感染者数をきちんと公表するようになったからじゃないのか？などの意見もありますが、ここではその議論は避けます。
25日からの感染者の急増を受けて、小池都知事は会見を開き「3/28以降の東京都民の外出自粛要請」を出すとともに、隣接する神奈川・千葉・埼玉に「東京との往来自粛要請」を出しました。
首都封鎖の瀬戸際
会見内で小池都知事は「ロックダウン（首都封鎖）は今すぐにというわけではない」としつつも、「有識者などの助言を受けながら、ある程度の政治的判断も必要」「今、なにも対策をとらなければロックダウンを招く」と話し、今後の状況次第での首都封鎖実施の可能性を否定はしませんでした。
東京都が封鎖ということになれば経済的な大打撃は避けられませんが、もし政府が緊急事態宣言を発令するような事態になれば、それと同時に東京都としても首都封鎖を決定する可能性はあります。
世界中で拡大しているロックダウン
新型コロナウイルスによる最初のロックダウンは中国の武漢で、中国本土での感染拡大を受けて1/23に封鎖されました。
現在は沈静化したとして4/8の封鎖解除が発表されています。
しかしその後のパンデミックにより、現在アメリカ・イギリス・イタリア・スペイン・インドなどでロックダウンが実施されていて、世界の人口のおよそ2割の人々がその区域内にいます。
外出禁止令までを含めると世界人口の3分の1以上の約30億人が生活の自由を奪われている状態です。
ロックダウンによる経済的打撃
2018年の東京都の都内総生産は約108兆円です。
日本のGDPが約550兆円なので、東京都の占める割合は約20％程となります。
首都が封鎖された場合にも企業活動は在宅勤務などである程度いままで通り行われることが予想されます。
しかし、外出禁止令などが発令されて都民が自宅から出なくなるとしたら、個人消費は著しく落ち込むことになります。
消費者庁の発表によると、GDPに占める家計支出の割合は約300兆円で約55％です。
外出禁止になっても食費・水道光熱費・家賃などは大きく減るわけではないので、それ以外の外食や娯楽などのサービスにかける支出が減ることになります。
消費者庁によると、家計支出のうち
食費・水道光熱費・住居費・通信費などの割合が49.2%
外食・娯楽・旅行・習い事などのサービスにかける支出が50.8%
https://www.caa.go.jp/policies/policy/consumer_research/white_paper/2018/white_paper_119.html#zuhyo-1-1-6-3
ということなので、50.8％の部分が首都封鎖や外出禁止によって大幅に減少することが予想されます。
都内総生産108兆円×家計支出の割合55％÷12ヶ月＝1ヶ月あたりの家計支出4.95兆円
1ヶ月あたりの家計支出4.95兆円×50.8％＝約2.5兆円
単純計算になりますが、仮に1ヶ月間東京都が封鎖された場合には少なくとも2.5兆円が失われる計算になります。
これは「東京オリンピックに伴う東京都の需要増価額」において東京都への直接的効果2兆円が一気に吹き飛んでマイナスになってしまうほどの額です。
https://www.2020games.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/9e1525ac4c454d171c82338c5a9b4c8a_1.pdf
さらに、東京以外にも近隣の県への影響や企業活動の縮小なども含めるともっと大きな影響が出てしまうことになります。
首都封鎖を回避するために
ウイルスという目に見えない敵との戦いになるので、こうすれば絶対に大丈夫というものはありません。
しかし、一人一人が予防する意識・人にうつさない意識をもって行動することで少しでも感染拡大は防げます。
気温も上がって桜も咲いて、外に出てお酒でも飲みたいなという気分になってしまいがちですが、ここが正念場ということで全員で協力して乗り切っていくしか無いんだろうなと思います。
今は我慢しないといけないことだらけでストレスも溜まりますが、1日でも早く元の生活に戻るために自分たちにできることを地道にやっていくしかありません。
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