今日も相変わらずの下落でした。
日経平均が1日で1000円下落とかダウが1日で2000ドル下落とかでも特に驚かなくなってきましたね。
保有銘柄
現物は全て売ったので、現在は空売りのみです。
岩谷産業株式会社（信用売り）
| 建値 | 3,650円 |
| 保有数 | 200株 |
| 売建玉 | 730,000円 |
| 終値 | 3,345円（前日比-30円） |
| 建玉評価額 | 789,966円 |
| 評価損益 | +59,966円 |
備考
- 今日は思ったより落ちず
- 値動きは大きいものの最後は上げて終わり
- 当分下落予想なのでしばらく保有
- -1σで逆指値の買戻注文入れる
日経225連動投信（信用売り）
| 平均建値 | 18,966円 |
| 保有数 | 100株 |
| 終値 | 18,020円（前日比-1,120円） |
| 建玉評価額 | 1,896,600円 |
| 評価損益 | +93,255円 |
備考
- 22,000円で逆指値の買戻注文
今日の話
まだまだ日経下がるだろうという予想なので、昨日の夜の段階で19,000円で売りの逆指値注文出してました。
昨夜のダウが相当下がったし日経も上がる要素ないので寄付きで一気に下に抜けていってしまうんだろうなと思ってたんですが、案の定いきなり17,690円まで下がって始まって約定せず。
19,000円まで戻ることは無さそうでしたが、多分今日終わると週末挟んで週明けでもっと下げると予想しているので、今日中にどこかで売り増そうとは思ってました。
昼の財務省・金融庁・日銀の緊急三者協議で何かしら動きがあるかと思いましたが特に何もなく午後も下げて始まりました。
さらに麻生さんも「減税などは考えてない」とか言って上がる要素なし。
ただ、17,000円台で売っていくのは少し安すぎる気がしたので、18,000円まで待つことに。
午後になってダウ先物・アジア株などが上昇したおかげで日経も上昇して、なんとか18,000円まで行ったところで50株売り増ししました。
- まだコロナの収束の見込みなし
- アメリカの利下げ
- 東京オリンピックの延期or中止
これだけ要素があれば日経に関しては少なくとも16,000円までは下がり続けるのではないかと思ってます。
金融政策と財政政策
日銀の金融政策
現在、日銀は国債の買い現先オペや共通担保資金供給オペなどの金融政策を打ち出して、なんとか市場を安定させようとしています。
ただ、現状マイナス金利でこれ以上の利下げはやりづらいですし、3月2日・3日の日銀の買いオペでも応札は予定額の5000億円を大きく割り込んだようです。
金利も下げられない、金融機関の資金の流動性はまだ問題ないとなってしまうと日銀の金融政策も手詰まり感が出てきてしまうのではないかと思います。
そこで、今やるべきは減税などの財政政策なのではないかと。
アメリカはトランプ大統領が給与税の免除を打ち出すなど、大型の財政出動を打ち出しています。
議会での承認が必要なため、まだ実施されるかどうかはわかりませんが多少なりとも市場へのインパクトはありました。
日本政府の財政政策
一方日本は、麻生財務大臣が「（市場の動揺は）いずれ収束する」「一律減税は景気刺激策にはならない」
などと話していて、インパクトのある財政政策を打ち出せそうな気配はありません。
安倍首相が甘利税調会長と話して「必要に応じて大胆な施策をとる」とコメントしているみたいですが「大胆な施策」は安倍首相がコメントする際の決まり文句なので、まだ不透明な状況です。
政府・財務省・金融庁ともお得意の「事態を注視して、必要な対応をする」というコメントしか出さないあたり、今のところ何もするつもりはなさそうだなという感じですね。
ここは一旦消費税を減税するなどして、消費マインドを刺激するなどするべきではないかと思います。
消費税を0％にしろとは言わないので、せめて5％か8％まで引き下げるのはどうかと。
今後の展望
現状、金融政策だけでは対応しきれないところまできているので、財政政策との合わせ技でこの状況を乗り切るしかない状態です。
今後、オリンピックが延期または中止という決定が出たら一層日本経済が落ち込むのは確定的です。
そして、オリンピックが延期または中止になる可能性は高いと思っています。
私の予想としては今後も日経の下落は止まらず、もしアメリカや世界の株価が持ち直しても日経は上がらないんじゃないかと思っています。
日本売りが加速して株価と円の同時安になってさらに状況が悪化してしまうという最悪のシナリオにならないことを祈っています。
コメント
コメント一覧 （54件）
Somebody essentially help to make seriously articles I would state. This is the first time I frequented your web page and thus far? I amazed with the research you made to make this particular publish extraordinary. Magnificent job!
dating website
[url=”http://datingsitesfirst.com/?”]kfc dating sim[/url]
free dating near you
[url=”http://datingonlinecome.com/?”]dating matchmaker[/url]
buy cialis 20mg
It’s really a great and useful piece of info. I’m satisfied that you simply shared this useful info with us. Please stay us informed like this. Thank you for sharing.
Your style is very unique compared to other folks I’ve read stuff from.
Many thanks for posting when you have the opportunity, Guess I will just book mark this page.
my webpage … wwwwa.l.r.u.scv.kd
Woh I like your articles, bookmarked!
My page – thewildenviros.com
I have been exploring for a bit for any high-quality articles or blog posts on this sort of area . Exploring in Yahoo I at last stumbled upon this web site. Reading this info So i’m happy to convey that I’ve a very good uncanny feeling I discovered exactly what I needed. I most certainly will make sure to don’t forget this site and give it a look regularly.
An intriguing discussion is definitely worth comment.
I do think that you need to write more about this subject, it might not be a taboo subject
but typically people do not talk about such topics. To the next!
Kind regards!!
tamoxifen without prescription[/url]
buy dapoxetine paypal[/url]
salzarex vardenafil[/url]
cialis online reviews[/url]
Hi there I am so glad I found your website, I really found you by mistake, while I was looking on Askjeeve for something else, Anyways I am here now and
would just like to say cheers for a tremendous post and
a all round thrilling blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to read through
it all at the minute but I have bookmarked it and also added your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read a lot more, Please do keep up the fantastic b.
I think this is among the most important information for me.
And i’m glad reading your article. But should remark on few general things, The web site style is perfect,
the articles is really great : D. Good job, cheers
Hi there mates, its great article about teachingand entirely explained,
keep it up all the time.
Hi there to every single one, it’s genuinely a pleasant for me to go to see this web site,
it consists of precious Information.
I was very pleased to find this website. I need to to thank you for ones time just for
this fantastic read!! I definitely loved every little bit of it and i also have you book-marked to check out new things on your site.
Thank you a bunch for sharing this with all folks you actually know what you are talking about!
Bookmarked. Kindly also consult with my site =). We can have a link change agreement
between us
Yes! Finally something about a.
I am actually thankful to the holder of this web page
who has shared this fantastic post at at this place.
wonderful points altogether, you just won a brand
new reader. What might you recommend in regards to your post that you just made a few
days in the past? Any positive?
free dating sites
Hmm is anyone else having problems with the images on this blog loading?
I’m trying to figure out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog.
Any responses would be greatly appreciated.
free dating sites
dating sites
This is my first time pay a quick visit at here and
i am actually impressed to read everthing at single place.
free dating sites https://785days.tumblr.com/
scoliosis
You actually make it seem so easy with your presentation but I
find this matter to be actually something which I think I would never understand.
It seems too complicated and extremely broad for me.
I am looking forward for your next post, I will try to get the hang of it!
scoliosis
scoliosis
you are truly a just right webmaster. The site loading
pace is incredible. It kind of feels that you’re doing any distinctive trick.
Furthermore, The contents are masterpiece. you have performed a magnificent job in this matter!
scoliosis
scoliosis
Hello, just wanted to mention, I loved this
post. It was helpful. Keep on posting! scoliosis
Great remarkable things here. I?¦m very glad to peer your post. Thanks a lot and i’m taking a look ahead to touch you. Will you kindly drop me a mail?
viagra online prescription[/url]
tider , browse tinder for free
[url=”http://tinderentrar.com/?”]tindr [/url]
Keep on working, great job!
Today, I went to the beach with my kids. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She put
the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear.
She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirely off topic
but I had to tell someone!
It’s awesome to visit this web site and reading the views
of all colleagues concerning this piece of writing, while I am
also keen of getting knowledge.
Hey There. I found your blog using msn. This is an extremely well written article.
I’ll make sure to bookmark it and come back to read more of your useful info.
Thanks for the post. I’ll certainly return.
You can certainly see your enthusiasm within the work you write.
The sector hopes for even more passionate writers such as you who aren’t afraid to
mention how they believe. At all times go after your heart.
I don’t know about you guys but I love airplanes. I have a friend in highschool that loves airplanes, so here are some airplane related stuff I don’t know about you guys but I love airplanes. I had a friend in highschool that loved airplanes, so here are some airplane related stuff https://www.airlinereporter.com/2010/04/breaking-midwest-and-frontier-has-a-new-name-frontier-airlines/
tinder online , tinder website
[url=”http://tinderentrar.com/?”]tider [/url]
Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is essentially a online game where you can do anything you want. sl is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you want to see more you can see these sl authors and blogs
Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is essentially a game where you can do anything you want. Second life is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you want to see more you can see these second life websites and blogs
Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is essentially a online game where you can do anything you want. SL is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you want to see more you can see these Second Life authors and blogs
Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is essentially a online game where you can do anything you want. SL is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you want to see more you can see these Second Life articles and blogs
Hey! This is kind of off topic but I need some help from an established blog.
Is it hard to set up your own blog? I’m not very
techincal but I can figure things out pretty fast.
I’m thinking about creating my own but I’m not sure where to start.
Do you have any points or suggestions? Cheers
I have fun with, result in I found exactly what I was taking a look for.
You’ve ended my four day lengthy hunt! God Bless you man. Have a great day.
Bye
Hello to every , as I am truly eager of reading this webpage’s post to be updated regularly.
It contains good stuff.
Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is essentially a game where you can do anything you want. Second life is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you want to see more you can see these Second Life articles and blogs
Hey! I realize this is somewhat off-topic however I had to
ask. Does managing a well-established blog such as yours
require a massive amount work? I’m completely new to running a blog
however I do write in my diary on a daily basis. I’d like to
start a blog so I can share my experience and thoughts online.
Please let me know if you have any recommendations or tips for brand new aspiring bloggers.
Thankyou!
Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is basically a online game where you can do anything you want. SL is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you want to see more you can see these sl websites and blogs
Have you ever heard of second life (sl for short). It is basically a online game where you can do anything you want. SL is literally my second life (pun intended lol). If you want to see more you can see these sl websites and blogs
free adult dating sites
[url=”http://stfreeonlinedating.com/?”]meet singles online [/url]
I think the admin of this web page is in fact working hard in support of his web page, as here every material is quality based data.
0mniartist asmr
I’m curious to find out what blog system you’re working with?
I’m having some small security problems with my latest website and I’d like to find something more safeguarded.
Do you have any suggestions? 0mniartist asmr
Way cool! Some extremely valid points! I appreciate
you penning this post and also the rest of the site is also really good.
asmr 0mniartist
Hi would you mind letting me know which hosting company you’re working with?
I’ve loaded your blog in 3 different internet browsers and I must say this blog loads a lot faster then most.
Can you suggest a good hosting provider at a fair price?
Cheers, I appreciate it! 0mniartist asmr
Great website. Lots of helpful information here. I am sending it to a few pals ans also sharing in delicious. And certainly, thanks to your sweat!